Getty ImagesRepublicans are in soul-searching mode after the coalition that powered Donald Trump to three straight presidential nominations imploded in spectacular fashion in the 2026 midterms.
The stunning election defeat immediately raised questions about the party’s future post-Trump.
But there are no easy answers as Republicans face the choice of doubling down on Trumpism or trying to chart a new path forward in his final years in office.
The depth of the problem was captured by outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who called the midterms “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans”.
“There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why,” Vance said.
The wide range of reactions on the right highlights deep fault lines in the party that formed around Trump’s improbable rise to the presidency in 2016 and never really went away.
It’s too early to tell which faction will win out. But while Republicans are still licking their wounds, the intraparty battle Vance predicted is already under way.
The party must decide whether it will be “centred on one figure, one guy, or on a wider set of ideas like conservatism that can win outside the deepest red places,” Rina Shah, a Republican strategist, told the BBC.
Critics on the right – the “Never Trumpers” who opposed his first White House campaign – are pushing for a return to the Republican Party’s pre-Trump roots, citing the historic losses around the country on election night.
But simply turning back the clock on Trump will be extremely difficult if not impossible to do.
The party has been wholly transformed during Trump’s decade-long reign. Most Republicans have shifted to the right on domestic issues like immigration, and rejected the interventionist foreign policy of the George W Bush era that led to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In Congress, the more moderate establishment wing of the party that disliked Trump from the start has almost entirely disappeared, replaced by conservative Trump backers who echo his nativism and populist rhetoric.
That trend continued this year, as old-guard Republicans like John Cornyn in Texas and Maine’s Susan Collins, both of whom clashed with Trump over the years, were voted out of office.
Three days after the election Trump appointed Stephen Miller as his new White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles.
The move signalled Trump has no plans to moderate his policies or message in his remaining years in office. Miller, who had been serving as the president’s chief domestic policy adviser, is a longtime Trump aide known for his hardline immigration policies.
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One of the architects of the Make America Great Again (Maga) movement, Steve Bannon, predicted a “civil war” in the party after the midterms.
Afterwards, he blamed the Republicans’ defeat on the economy and “foreign wars”. “I don’t think we implemented the Maga programme,” he said, calling on Trump to double down on mass deportations.
But other Republican strategists said the midterms were a wake up call for Make America Great Again (Maga) loyalists who want Trump’s political movement to outlast his presidency.
“There’s still plenty of Maga voters out there who have supported Donald Trump through thick and thin,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist.
“But there is also a significant portion of the Republican Party that’s non-Maga, and that’s a majority now.”
Getty ImagesShould Republican hopefuls distance themselves from Trump?
The party lost control of the House and Senate, as well as governorships and state legislatures in red states like Texas and Kansas where Democrats had been shut out of power for decades – and where Trump won by double digits when he was on the ballot.
The stunning upsets underscored the fickle nature of political coalitions.
Trump expanded the Republican base in 2024, increasing support with Latinos and younger voters among other key groups. Republicans hailed the gains as a sign of future strength for the party.
Just two years later, the party lost ground with nearly every critical voting bloc. According to a New York Times analysis of voter data, Latino support for Democratic candidates increased by 29 percentage points from 2024-26. Support from young voters 18-29 years old increased by 33 points.
The swings reflected polling ahead of the midterms that found widespread disapproval with Trump’s handling of the economy, immigration and the war with Iran.
Getty ImagesDemocrats also capitalised on a public perception that the Trump family and administration is rife with self-dealing and corruption. The president’s focus on the White House ballroom and other Washington construction projects also contributed to a sense among voters that he was more focused on his legacy than addressing affordability issues.
It’s a sentiment shared by Benjamin Shrader, the leader of the Young Republicans in Austin, who was still shell-shocked when he spoke to the BBC in Texas the morning after his party was almost wiped out in the state by a Democratic “blue tsunami”.
Shrader said Trump was still a “force of nature” when asked to reflect on how the president had used his first public appearance after the results to show off the White House ballroom project.
He hesitated before adding: “I would focus on issues that are not ballrooms, that are not renaming things. I would focus on what matters.”
The evidence in the immediate aftermath of the midterms suggests that Republicans could benefit by distancing themselves from Trump ahead of 2028.
‘Vance was the favourite – now the race is wide open’
Vance tried to thread the needle with his midterm assessment blaming the Iran war and calling for a return to “America First.” It was a nuanced critique that broke with Trump on an unpopular war, but embraced a broader political brand that remains popular with the Maga base.
Trump’s next moves on Iran will be watched closely by the party for their 2028 implications. An escalation would risk fuelling the concerns voiced by Vance and other “America First” proponents.
In his postmortem statement on X, Vance also echoed the growing calls on the right to reexamine US support for Israel. But he also signalled an openness to making some immigration enforcement changes. That clashes with Miller, a Vance ally who has speared the administration’s second-term immigration agenda.
Party strategists said the midterm drubbing complicated Vance’s path to the nomination.
“Before this midterm, JD Vance was the odds-on favourite to win the Republican nomination in 2028. After this midterm, the nomination battle is completely wide open,” Ayres said.
Potential Trump successors have some time to consider their options, but they’ll have to make up their minds relatively soon. Any 2028 presidential hopefuls will face pressure to announce White House bids in the next few months. Some could launch campaigns before the end of the year.
Vance’s election analysis was widely interpreted as an unofficial signal of his plans to run. It will likely be a crowded primary field.
Getty ImagesOther rumoured White House contenders include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Florida Governor DeSantis, former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, to name a few.
In the next election cycle, Republican presidential and congressional candidates alike will have tough decisions to make on key issues of the day, from US support for Israel to tariffs to the AI boom.
Trump’s power may be diminished as he enters the final two years of his second term, but he’ll still have the loudest voice in the party over the next two years. It’s unclear whether he will get deeply involved in the process or take a hands-off approach.
Trump has praised Vance and Rubio at different times, but typically deflects questions about who he’d like to see succeed him.
His endorsement will loom as the biggest wildcard in the 2028 Republican primary race.
“It remains to be seen who will jump into that race,” Ayres said.
“But I think it’s going to be a lot larger and more diverse than we anticipated before the midterm election.”
Follow the twists and turns of Trump’s second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher’s US Politics Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.
