ReutersWith results still trickling in, it currently appears that Israel’s veteran Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has done better than was widely predicted with his Likud emerging as the largest single party.
His existing bloc with ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties appear to be just short of a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament. However, analysts caution that this is subject to change because the early count was skewed towards areas known to have strong right-wing support.
A dramatic deadlock had been widely forecast as Israelis surged to the polls – with turnout reaching more than 77%.
In Israel’s fragmented political system, the signs are that Netanyahu’s main rival the former army chief, Gadi Eisenkot, would struggle to command a parliamentary majority without parties led by Israel’s Arab minority. According to partial results, they have equalled or gained on their previous record number of seats.
However, Israel’s Arab-led parties could emerge as kingmakers if others were prepared to join forces with them. In this election, Arab Israelis – who often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel and represent one-fifth of the population – appeared to turn out in unprecedented numbers.
Many saw this as a make-or-break election to defeat Israel’s most right-wing-ever government, accusing it of stoking racism and hatred.
A huge caveat in all of the current analysis is that the high number of as-yet-uncounted absentee ballots – mostly representing the votes of Israeli soldiers – mean that we are not expecting to have a clear idea of the final results for another day or two.
Overnight, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot addressed their supporters, pledging to form the next government.
“The right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public, among the Jewish public and all those who support the Jewish state. That is what has become clear. A decisive majority,” the PM told his celebrating supporters – although he stopped short of declaring victory.
“We must form a strong, national, right-wing government. That is what must be done,” he added.
“The public has chosen change,” Eisenkot told his Yashar party after exit polls came out – most of which were initially more favourable to the opposition. “The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust. The Israeli public voted against Benjamin Netanyahu continuing as prime minister.”
“I will work with my partners to ensure that the people’s decision is translated into a Zionist government: stable and good for all of Israeli’s citizens. And quickly – because that is what this moment demands, and because the country needs to be brought back together.”
There are deep divisions in Israeli society which have been underscored by this and previous elections. They have served not just as referenda on Netanyahu’s leadership – as he faces a corruption trial on charges he denies – but also as votes on what kind of country Israel should be.
The PM and his current coalition partners have taken the country on a hardline religious, nationalist trajectory over the past four years. There were mass protests over their plan for a judicial overhaul prior to the unprecedented Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 which triggered a series of wars – in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Many Israelis want to see their country more firmly anchored in liberal and secular values.
Remarkably, the past four turbulent years do not appear to have significantly changed voting patterns.
“We see in the polls, that the relative weight of the two main sides: pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu is about the same,” Professor Tamar Hermann, a pollster at the Israeli Democracy Institute told me, just prior to the election. “People expected that after October 7th, Netanyahu will be down the drain or even toppled but it didn’t happen.”
Already, overnight, the main Israeli parties will have begun their intense political wrangling to try to form a new coalition government.
“Each side will try to pull over defectors, or will try to see if they can make a minority government and will try all these different political kinds of wizardry,” is how veteran Israeli journalist and author, Yaakov Katz described the process to me. “But it might not work, and it could take weeks or months to see if someone is actually capable of forming a government.”
The leaders of the bigger parties typically try to win over smaller ones with promises of cabinet positions, budgets or specific policies.
It is key now to see if those in the main opposition “change bloc” are ready to break a taboo by seeking a political deal with the Arab parties.
On the campaign trail, one of the bloc’s leaders, right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman, went as far as to say that he would not sit in a minority government that relied on their support. It was a sign of the increased mistrust and hostility towards Arab citizens since the 7 October assault.
When I recently met Mansour Abbas, head of Ra’am – the smaller of the two Arab lists – he told me that having been part of the diverse coalition that temporarily unseated Netanyahu between 2021 and 2022, he wanted to join the next government. He believed that potential partners would be more open to an alliance after the election.
“These are familiar and well-known party-political considerations. All politicians in Israel say one thing before elections and speak a different language after elections,” he said. “We have experienced this before, and it does not concern us.”
Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his allies have already begun an intense campaign of delegitimising the Arab parties – casting their fellow citizens as a threat from within.
So what are the next steps?
After the final results are presented to Israel’s largely ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog, next week, he will consult all the leaders of elected parties and ask the candidate who appears most likely to form a coalition to do so.
If that candidate is unable to pull together a majority within a maximum of six weeks, then others could be allowed to try.
If, after all the haggling, no-one is able to form a governing coalition, a new election will be held in the following months, and the entire process will be repeated.
In the meantime, Netanyahu’s government stays on in a caretaker role but without the authority to enact major policy changes.
