Dubai leads global super-prime home sales despite slowdown

Dubai retained its position as the world’s busiest market for homes costing at least $10 million in the third quarter of 2026, although sales fell sharply, property consultancy Knight Frank said.
The emirate registered 86 transactions worth $1.57 billion between July and September, ahead of Hong Kong’s 78 deals and New York’s 62, according to the firm’s Global Super-Prime Intelligence report. However, Hong Kong overtook Dubai in the total value of sales, recording $1.58 billion and taking the financial lead for the first time since the second quarter of 2022.
Dubai’s transaction count dropped 34 per cent from the preceding quarter, while aggregate sales value declined 28 per cent. Compared with the corresponding period last year, the number of transactions was 16 per cent lower and their value fell 21 per cent. The quarterly count was the lowest since the third quarter of 2024.
The decline marked a second consecutive quarterly retreat after a strong opening to 2026. Nevertheless, Dubai maintained a substantial lead over other markets on a rolling annual basis, with 525 sales worth $9.25 billion in the 12 months ending September. Hong Kong followed with 346 transactions valued at $6.65 billion.
Knight Frank’s global head of research, Liam Bailey, said the slowdown was accompanied by a change in the geographical distribution of luxury housing activity. Hong Kong’s advance in transaction value and Sydney’s record quarter contrasted with weaker trading in several established markets.
Across the 12 cities monitored, sales of homes valued at $10 million or more declined 19 per cent from the second quarter to 470 transactions. Their combined value fell 18 per cent to $8.7 billion. Compared with a year earlier, deal numbers were down 2 per cent, although total value increased 1 per cent.
Hong Kong’s quarterly transaction count fell 16 per cent from the preceding three months, but was 39 per cent higher than a year earlier. The value of its sales rose 52 per cent year on year, underlining the difference between its annual recovery and Dubai’s slowing activity.
New York ranked third, with 62 transactions worth $1.08 billion. Its sales count rose 9 per cent from the second quarter, while the value of transactions increased 11 per cent, making it one of the relatively few major markets to register quarterly growth.
Sydney recorded 57 transactions, more than double the previous quarter’s 27, with their combined value rising 77 per cent to $724 million. Singapore registered 44 deals worth $613 million. London recorded 42 transactions, down from 46, while their combined value fell to $722 million as unusually expensive transactions from the preceding quarter were not repeated.
The average London super-prime transaction consequently declined from $31.7 million to $17.2 million. Los Angeles recorded 18 transactions, its lowest quarterly count in Knight Frank’s series. Asia-Pacific cities accounted for 38 per cent of transactions across the surveyed markets, compared with 29 per cent in the second quarter, while US transaction volumes declined 30 per cent.
Over the 12 months to September, the 12 monitored markets registered 2,240 super-prime transactions worth $41 billion. Knight Frank described those totals as stable against the preceding rolling annual period, suggesting that the weaker third quarter reflected changing activity between locations rather than a contraction in the full-year market. The consultancy identified Hong Kong’s recovery as a development to monitor.
For Dubai, Knight Frank has separately identified regional conflict as a constraint on buyer confidence. Faisal Durrani, its head of research for the Middle East and North Africa, said the conflict was weighing on overall activity, despite continuing demand for expensive homes.
The firm’s Dubai analysis counted 412 transactions worth at least $10 million during the first nine months of 2026, a 15 per cent increase over the corresponding period of 2025. Their combined value was approximately $6.67 billion. Of the third-quarter deals, 13 exceeded $25 million, while 73 were priced between $10 million and $25 million.
Palm Jumeirah accounted for 27 of Dubai’s transactions, worth approximately Dh2.01 billion, and included the quarter’s largest sale, at Dh260 million. Villas represented 55 of the emirate’s 86 transactions. Knight Frank also recorded a 5 per cent quarterly decline in prices across Dubai’s 10 prime residential neighbourhoods, the first such fall since 2020.